Effect of a Multifaceted Approach on Perceived Support Among Mothers of Preterm Infants: A Quasi-Experimental Study.

Introduction: Mothers of preterm infants need support to deal with the issues caused by the early birth of their infants. Objective: The authors examined the impact of a multifaceted supportive approach on the mothers' perceived support levels. Methods: The present quasi-experimental study was performed on 143 mother-preterm infant pairs, in two neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) of referral and educational hospitals in Tehran, Iran. The base of developed interventions was known to support system patterns of mothers with preterm infants. Different supportive interventions (appraisal, instrumental, emotional, and informational) of mothers were implemented during three months. The Nurse Parent Support Tool was applied for assessing perceptions of perceived support by mothers. Routine care was provided for the control group. The results were analyzed by STATA software 13. Categorical variables were analyzed by chi-square test, t-test, and inverse probability treatment weights. Results: Following adjustments of mean differences of outcomes between study groups (95% confidence interval), all support scores, such as instrumental support, -1.23 (95% CI -1.04 to -1.43), total support, -1.83 (95% CI -1.6 to -2.06), appraisal support, -2.01 (95% CI -1.73 to -2.29), emotional support, -1.87 (95% CI -2.15 to 1.6), and informational support, -2.12 (95% CI -1.82 to -2.43), were significantly higher in the interventional group than in the control group (p < .001). Conclusions: Support received by mothers of preterm infants determines maternal/neonatal health. Information sharing and effective ways to support are essential elements in the mother's ability to deal with the new, stressful situation. This multifaceted supportive approach considerably improved mothers' perceived support.

Global Dilemma and Needs Assessment Toward Achieving Sustainable Development Goals in Controlling Leishmaniasis.

Leishmaniasis is a disease of poverty that imposes a devastating medical, social, and economic burden on over 1 billion people nationwide. To date, no in-depth study to analyze the major global challenges and needs assessment has been carried out. This investigation aimed to explore a comprehensive narrative review of leishmaniasis's main challenges and initially highlight obstacles that might impede the implementation of control measures. Also, we propose a specific list of priorities for needs assessment. The presence of socioeconomic factors, multiple clinical and epidemiological forms, various Leishmania species, the complexity of the life cycle, the absence of effective drugs and vaccines, and the lack of efficient vector and reservoir control make this organism unique and sophisticated in playing a tangled role to react tricky with its surrounding environments, despite extensive efforts and implementation of all-inclusive former control measures. These facts indicate that the previous strategic plans, financial support, and basic infrastructures connected to leishmaniasis surveillance are still insufficient. Strengthening the leishmaniasis framework in a context of accelerated programmatic action and intensification of cross-cutting activities along with other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is confidently expected to result in greater effectiveness, cost-benefit, and fruitful management. Sensitive diagnostics, effective therapeutics, and efficacious vaccines are vital to accelerating advancement toward elimination, and reducing morbidity/mortality and program costs. Collective actions devoted by all sectors and policy-makers can hopefully overcome technical and operational barriers to guarantee that effective and coordinated implementation plans are sustained to meet the road map for NTDs 2021- 2030 goals.

The effect of spiritual reminiscence therapy on depression and hope among Iranian older adults: a quasi-experimental study.

This quasi-experimental study aimed to evaluate the impact of spiritual reminiscence therapy (SRT) on depression and hope among older adults living in Shahroud, northeast of Iran. One hundred fifty-six older adults were selected through convenience sampling and assigned non-randomly to the intervention (n= 78) and control (n= 78) groups. The data collection tools included the Geriatric Depression Scale and Adult Hope Scale. For the intervention group, SRT was conducted in six weekly sessions, each lasting 60 to 90 min, over six weeks. The data were analyzed utilizing descriptive statistics and inferential tests (independent t-test, Chi-square test, and analysis of covariance). The two groups' post-intervention mean scores on depression (t= 11.63 and P< 0.001), and hope (t= 4.41 and P< 0.001) were statistically different, suggesting that SRT positively affected older adults by alleviating despair and boosting hope. The findings indicate that engaging in SRT can be beneficial in reducing depression and fostering hope among older adults.

Desired Care for Perinatal Bereavement: Meeting the Needs of Mothers After Discharge From the Hospital-a Qualitative Study.

This study aimed to investigate the understanding and experiences of mothers who have suffered perinatal loss regarding their needs after being discharged from the hospital. Data were collected through semi-structured face-to-face and telephone interviews using purposive sampling with maximum diversity. The sample included 15 mothers and 6 midwives who had experienced fetal loss and perinatal bereavement. The interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Conventional content analysis was used to analyze the data. Sampling was conducted from July 2022 to March 2023, continuing until data saturation was reached. The study identified 2 main categories of needs for mothers who have experienced perinatal loss: continuous healthcare (including the Comprehensive Mother Tracking System, provision of psychological welfare, and educational needs) and provision of a support network, including "spouse and family support" and "peer and colleague support." The primary theme of this study was "Deliberating Care for Grieving Mothers." The study results indicate that mothers who experience perinatal loss require continuity of care after being discharged. Psychological screening and counseling support are essential for both parents. Considering the significant impact of spousal, familial, and community support on an individual's life, it is crucial to prepare the community to comprehend and embrace grieving parents.

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Hampers COVID-19: A Controlled Cross-Sectional Study in High-Burden Endemic Areas of Iran.

INTRODUCTION: Emerging infectious diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 can cause pandemics and create a critical risk for humans. In a previous pilot study, we reported that the immunological responses induced by cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) could decrease the incidence and severity of COVID-19. In this large-scale case-control study, we assessed the possible relationship between mortality and morbidity of COVID-19 in healed CL persons suffering scars compared to cases without CL history. METHODS: This controlled cross-sectional study was conducted between July 2020 and December 2022 in the endemic and high-burden areas of CL in southeastern Iran. In the study, 1400 previous CL cases with scars and 1,521,329 subjects who had no previous CL were analyzed. We used R 4.0.2 to analyze the data. Firth's bias reduction approach corresponding to the penalization of likelihood logistic regression by Jeffreys was also employed to influence the variables in the dataset. Also, a Bayesian ordinal logistic regression model was performed to explore the COVID-19 severity in both case and referent groups. RESULTS: The occurrence and severity rate of COVID-19 in CL scar cases are significantly less than in the non-CL control group, while in the CL scar subjects, patients with critical conditions and mortality were not observed. The morbidity (OR = 0.11, CI 0.06-0.20 and P < 0.001) and severity of COVID-19 in previous cases with CL scars were significantly diminished than that in the control group (credible interval - 2.57, - 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: The results represented a durable negative relationship between cured CL and COVID-19 incidence and severity. Additional studies seem necessary and should be designed to further validate the true impact and underlying mechanistic action of CL on COVID-19.

Comparison of cytotoxicity of Miltefosine and its niosomal form on chick embryo model.

Various drugs have been used for the treatment of leishmaniasis, but they often have adverse effects on the body's organs. In this study, we aimed to explore the effects of one type of drug, Miltefosine (MIL), and its analogue or modifier, liposomal Miltefosine (NMIL), on several fetal organs using both in silico analysis and practical tests on chicken embryos. Our in silico approach involved predicting the affinities of MIL and NMIL to critical proteins involved in leishmaniasis, including Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A (VEGF-A), the Kinase insert domain receptor (KDR1), and apoptotic-regulator proteins (Bcl-2-associate). We then validated and supported these predictions through in vivo investigations, analyzing gene expression and pathological changes in angiogenesis and apoptotic mediators in MIL- and NMIL-treated chicken embryos. The results showed that NMIL had a more effective action towards VEGF-A and KDR1 in leishmaniasis, making it a better candidate for potential operative treatment during pregnancy than MIL alone. In vivo, studies also showed that chicken embryos under MIL treatment displayed less vascular mass and more degenerative and apoptotic changes than those treated with NMIL. These results suggest that NMIL could be a better treatment option for leishmaniasis during pregnancy.

A prospective longitudinal study on the elimination trend of rural cutaneous leishmaniasis in southeastern Iran: Climate change, population displacement, and agricultural transition from 1991 to 2021.

Leishmaniasis is a complex disease. Any change in weather conditions affects the humans' social and agricultural expansion and, consequently, the parasite's life cycle in terms of ecology, biodiversity, social stigma, and exclusion. This population-based prospective longitudinal investigation was conducted between 1991 and 2021 in a well-defined CL (cutaneous leishmaniasis) focus in Bam County, southeastern Iran. A robust health clinic and health surveillance system were responsible for the ongoing systematic documentation, detection, identification, and management of CL cases. The exponential smoothing method via the state space model was used in the univariate time series. The TTR, smooth, and forecast packages were used in R software. Landsat satellite images from 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 were employed in the physical development. During this period, the temperature increased while the rainfall and humidity decreased. The findings showed a downward trend in the standardized drought index. Also, the results showed that climate warming and ecological changes profoundly affected the area's agricultural patterns and topographical features. Furthermore, the last three decades witnessed an elimination trend for zoonotic CL (ZCL) and the predominance of anthroponotic CL (ACL). The present findings showed that the critical factors in the predominance of ACL and elimination of ZCL were rising temperature, drought, migration, unplanned urbanization, earthquake, and agrarian reform. The wall-enclosed palm tree gardens excluded the primary ZCL reservoir host. They controlled the disease while providing suitable conditions for the emergence/re-emergence of ACL in the newly established settlements and the unplanned ecozone. Therefore, robust health infrastructures, sustained financial support, and evidence-based research studies are crucial to facilitating the necessary surveillance, monitoring, and evaluation to control and eliminate the disease.

Depression and self-care in diabetes; adjustment for misclassification bias: application of predictive weighting method.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between depression and self-care in diabetic patients potentially influenced by biases in depression measurement using weighting the positive and negative predictive values. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 1050 patients informedly consented to participate in the study. Using a WHO-5 well-being index, the participants were examined for depressive mood as exposure. The sensitivity and specificity of this index in a systematic review study were 0.86 and 0.81, respectively. Self-care (that is outcome) was assessed using the Summary of Diabetes Self-Care Activities (SDSCA) questionnaire. To correct the misclassification bias of exposure, the predictive weighting method was used in the multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for covariates. Bootstrap sample with replacement and simulation was used to deal with random error. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 42.8 ± 7.5 years. In this study, 70.1% of diabetic patients (n = 720) were depressed based on the questionnaire score and only 52.7% (n = 541) of them had appropriate self-care behaviors. Our study revealed a close relationship between self-care and covariates such as gender, depression, having comorbidities, abdominal obesity, economic status and education. The odds ratio of the association between depressive mood and lack of self-care in primary multivariable logistic regression was 2.21 (95% CI: 1.62-3.00, p < 0.001) and after misclassification bias adjusting, it was equal to 3.4 (95% CI: 1.7-6.6, p < 0.001). The OR percentage of bias was - 0.55. CONCLUSION: After adjusting for depression misclassification bias and random error, the observed association between depression and self-care was stronger. According to our findings, psychiatric interventions, and counseling and education along with self-care interventions are necessary for these patients. Special attention should be paid to male, low economic classes, less educated and those having a history of comorbidities along with psychological assessment when improving the care and progress of treatment in diabetic patients is expected. Future studies are needed to clarify the role of other psychological disorders on self-care of diabetics.

Effects of Increased Blood Flow Rate and Oral Activated Charcoal on the Severity of Uremic Pruritus: A Randomized Crossover Clinical Trial.

The aim of this study was to compare the effect of increased blood flow rate and the administration of an activated charcoal suspension on the severity of uremic pruritus in hemodialysis patients in a crossover clinical trial. Each group (n = 20) received three 2-week interventions, including increased pumping speed, daily administration of a charcoal suspension (6 g), and the concurrent use of increased pumping speed and oral administration of the charcoal suspension. After each intervention, they had a 2-week washout period. The severity and quality of pruritus were measured using the Yosipovitch's pruritus questionnaire. The results showed that the mean severity, highest pruritus score, and lowest pruritus score decreased after all three interventions, but the highest decrease was related to the third intervention. Considering the results of this study, simultaneous use of increased pumping speed and oral administration of a charcoal suspension is recommended to reduce uremic pruritus in hemodialysis patients.

The effect of an mHealth application based on continuous support and education on fear of childbirth, self-efficacy, and birth mode in primiparous women: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The Fear of Childbirth (FOC) is associated with several adverse health outcomes for children and women. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of an interactive mobile health application named Tele-midwifery with an emphasis on continuous care and education, on FOC, self-efficacy, and childbirth mode in primiparous women. METHODS: Seventy primiparous women attending the prenatal clinic of Baharlou Hospital in Tehran, Iran, were randomly assigned to two parallel intervention and control groups with 35 participants each. Women in the intervention group received Tele-midwifery for eight weeks, whereas women in the control group only received routine care. The Wijma delivery expectancy/experience questionnaire and the Childbirth Self-Efficacy Inventory were used to measure the FOC and self-efficacy at baseline and eight weeks after the intervention. The FOC and birth mode were also measured after birth. RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in FOC among women in the intervention group compared to control groups after eight weeks of intervention (- 20.9 [95% Confidence Interval,-24.01 to-17.83], p < 0.001), and after birth (- 30.8, [95% CI-33.8 to-27.97], p < 0.001). After eight weeks, the mean self-efficacy score in the intervention group was significantly higher than the control group (p < 0.001). Compared to the control group, the intervention group had a lower C-Section (CS) rate (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Tele-midwifery intervention reduced FOC, increased women's self-efficacy in childbirth, and decreased the number of CS in a group of first-time mothers. Healthcare providers can use the mHealth approach to support pregnant women with FOC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registration number: IRCT20200122046227N1, Registered on 27 January 2020.

A comparison of phylogenetic and distance-based approaches for the distinction of genetically closed species, Draba rimarum (Rech.f.) A.R. Khosravi & A. Eslami-Farouji, and Draba aucheri Boiss. (Brassicaceae) as a case study.

Circumscribing species boundries is necessary in systematic plant biology. Even a mistake in delimiting taxa may lead to incorrect scientific interpretations. Draba rimarum (Rech.f.) A.R. Khosravi & A. Eslami-Farouji is an endemic Iranian species with a narrow geographic distribution, and is genetically close to D. aucheri. The present study provided a phylogenetic review, time divergence, and planar network of both species to unravel the distinct position of both species along with the prediction of any conflicting or ambiguous signals. Regarding this purpose, here we represent that phylogenetic trees may fail to show reliable results toward the distinct position of genetically close species.

Exploring mesoporous silica nanoparticles as oral insulin carriers: In-silico and in vivo evaluation.

The advancements in nanoscience have brought attention to the potential of utilizing nanoparticles as carriers for oral insulin administration. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of synthesized polymeric mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSN) as carriers for oral insulin and their interactions with insulin and IR through in-silico docking. Diabetic rats were treated with various MSN samples, including pure MSN, Amin-grafted MSN/PEG/Insulin (AMPI), Al-grafted MSN/PEG/Insulin (AlMPI), Zinc-grafted MSN/PEG/Insulin (ZNPI), and Co-grafted MSN/PEG/Insulin (CMPI). The nanocomposites were synthesized using a hybrid organic-inorganic method involving MSNs, graphene oxide, and insulin. Characterization of the nanocomposites was conducted using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). In vivo tests included the examination of blood glucose levels and histopathological parameters of the liver and pancreas in type 1 diabetic rats. The MSN family demonstrated a significant reduction in blood glucose levels compared to the diabetic control group (p < 0.001). The synthesized nanocomposites exhibited safety, non-toxicity, fast operation, self-repairing pancreas, cost-effectiveness, and high efficiency in the oral insulin delivery system. In the in-silico study, Zn-grafted MSN, Co-grafted MSN, and Al-grafted MSN were selected. Docking results revealed strong interactions between MSN compounds and insulin and IR, characterized by the formation of hydrogen bonds and high binding energy. Notably, Co-grafted MSN showed the highest docking scores of -308.171 kcal/mol and -337.608 kcal/mol to insulin and IR, respectively. These findings demonstrate the potential of polymeric MSN as effective carriers for oral insulin, offering promising prospects for diabetes treatment.

In silico and in vitro potentials of crocin and amphotericin B on Leishmania major: Multiple synergistic mechanisms of actions.

A significant barrier to optimal antileishmanial treatment is low efficacy and the emergence of drug resistance. Multiple approaches were used to monitor and assess crocin (a central component of saffron) mixed with amphotericin B (AmpB) potential in silico and in vitro consequences. The binding behavior of crocin and iNOS was the purpose of molecular docking. The results showed that crocin coupled with AmpB demonstrated a safe combination, extremely antileishmanial, suppressed Leishmania arginase absorption, and increased parasite death. This natural flower component is a robust antioxidant, significantly promoting the expression of the Th1-connected cytokines (IL12p40, IFN-γ, and TNF- α), iNOS, and transcription factors (Elk-1, c-Fos, and STAT-1). In comparison, the expression of the Th2-associated phenotypes (IL-10, IL-4, and TGF-ß) was significantly reduced. The leishmanicidal effect of this combination was also mediated through programmed cell death (PCD), as confirmed by the manifestation of phosphatidylserine and cell cycle detention at the sub-GO/G1 phase. In conclusion, crocin with AmpB synergistically exerted in vitro antileishmanial action, generated nitric oxide and reactive oxygen species, modulated Th1, and Th2 phenotypes and transfer factors, enhanced PCD profile and arrested the cell cycle of Leishmania major promastigotes. The main action of crocin and AmpB involved wide-ranging mechanistic insights for conducting other clinical settings as promising drug candidates for cutaneous leishmaniasis. Therefore, this combination could be esteemed as a basis for a potential bioactive component and a logical source for leishmanicidal drug development against CL in future advanced clinical settings.

Comparison of the effect of pressure control and volume control ventilation on endotracheal tube cuff pressure in patients undergoing general anesthesia and mechanical ventilation: a parallel randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation are prevalent interventions in the operating room and intensive care unit. Recently, the complications of endotracheal tube cuff pressure have been a topic of interest. Therefore, this study compared the effect of pressure control and volume control ventilation modes on the endotracheal cuff pressure rate in patients undergoing general anesthesia and mechanical ventilation. METHODS: In this triple-blinded randomized clinical trial, 50 patients undergoing open limb surgery and inguinal hernia were allocated to two groups of 25 based on inclusion criteria. After intubation, one group underwent ventilation on the pressure control ventilation mode, and the other underwent ventilation on the volume control ventilation mode. In both groups, using a manometer, the cuff's pressure was first adjusted in the range of 25-30 cm of water. Then, the cuff pressure was measured at 10, 20, and 30 min intervals. The data were statistically analyzed using independent t-test, and two-way repeated measures ANOVA. RESULTS: The present study's findings showed that cuff pressure has significantly decreased over time in both study groups (F = 117.7, P < 0.001). However, a repeated measures ANOVA with a Greenhouse-Geisser correction showed no interaction between time and groups (F = 0.019, P = 0.98). The two groups had no significant difference in cuff pressure (F = 0.56, P = 0.458). CONCLUSION: Since the cuff pressure has been significantly reduced in both groups over time, continuous monitoring of endotracheal tube cuff pressure in patients undergoing mechanical ventilation is essential. Therefore, it is suggested to keep the cuff pressure within the recommended range to prevent complications resulting from cuff pressure reduction, such as aspiration and ventilation decrease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered in the Iranian Registry of Clinical Trial on 23/02/2019 (trial registration number: IRCT20181018041376N1).

Health-promoting lifestyle and its determining factors among students of public and private universities in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Health-promoting lifestyle is one of the fundamental health-related components. The aim of this study was to determine the status of the health-promoting lifestyle and its determining factors among students of public and private medical universities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study conducted in 2018, 1000 students from different public and private universities of medical sciences were selected by a multi-stage, stratified random sampling procedure and were studied using health-promoting lifestyle, self-efficacy, and well-being questionnaires. Data were analyzed using t-test, Chi-square, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and backward regression model. RESULTS: The health-promoting lifestyle was relatively acceptable in 775 people (77.5%); 649 (64.9%) had low self-efficacy, and 560 students (56%) had abnormal health conditions. The mean scores of health-promoting lifestyle, self-efficacy, and well-being in all students were 130.74 ± 22.14, 51.19 ± 12.66, and 15.22 ± 5.43, respectively. There were statistically significant differences between the mean scores of most aspects of health-promoting lifestyle, self-efficacy, and well-being in public and private universities. There was a statistically significant relationship between well-being (r = 0.08, P = 0.02) and self-efficacy (r = -0.19, P < 0.001) with health-promoting lifestyle. CONCLUSION: Students' well-being, self-efficacy, and physical activities of students were not at an acceptable level. Moreover, the health-promoting lifestyle of students was moderate. Implementing of health-related educational, developmental, and psycho-social programs for promotion and encouraging students to promote healthy behaviors is necessary.

The Effect of Breast Massage Training on Self-Efficacy and Perceived Stress of Prim Parous Women: A Clinical Trial Study.

Background: Breastfeeding is a highly efficacious, health-promoting activity that prevents many disorders and diseases. Successful breastfeeding depends on various maternal physiological and psychological factors, among which breastfeeding self-efficacy is an adjustable framework. This study investigates the effect of breast massage training on self-efficacy and perceived stress in primiparous women. Materials and Methods: This study is a clinical trial study on 132 eligible primiparous mothers referred to Bahar Hospital from August 15, 2019, to December 15, 2020. The women were randomly divided into intervention and control groups. The massage was performed in the intervention group before breastfeeding. The data were collected using a standard breastfeeding self-efficacy questionnaire and the Sheldon Perceived Standard Questionnaire. Data were entered into SPSS 18 and analyzed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square, and analysis of variance. Results: The results of this study showed that the mean (SD) breastfeeding self-efficacy in the breast massage training group with direct midwife involvement was 61.63 (9.21), higher than the one in the control group 51.51 (11.62). In addition, perceived stress was 19.81 in the intervention group and 24.84 in the control group, which was also statistically significant. Conclusions: Due to the increase in self-efficacy scores and decrease in stress scores after breast massage, this method can improve breastfeeding performance in women. Therefore, educational strategies should be developed in this area.

Evaluation of the relationship between vitamin D levels with oocyte quality in breast cancer women: a cross-sectional study.

Recent evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency could play an important role in the development of non-skeletal diseases, including cancer. Vitamin D also affects the function of the reproductive system. In the present study, the relationship between 25(OH)D levels with oocyte quality in Breast Cancer (BC) women and control group have been investigated. After initial evaluations, ovarian stimulation began with the GnRH antagonist protocol in the BC group (N = 16) and control group (N = 16). The serum and follicular fluid (FF) 25(OH)D levels were measured at the time of oocyte retrieval and their relationship to oocyte quality was examined. The mean levels of serum and FF 25(OH)D in BC women were significantly lower than in the control group (22.26 ± 7.98 vs. 29.61 ± 9.12, P = 0.02, 21.65 ± 7.59 vs. 28.00 ± 9.05, P = 0.04, respectively). There was a significant correlation between the levels of 25(OH)D in FF and serum in BC women (r = 0.873, P < 0.001). But there was no correlation between the serum or FF 25(OH)D levels with the parameters related to oocytes (P > 0.05). In the BC women, the number of dysmorph and highly dysmorph oocytes was higher than in the control group (P < 0.001). Women with BC referring to infertility centers for fertility preservation are more likely to be deficient in serum 25(OH)D level; this subsequently affects the FF 25(OH)D level. However, serum and FF 25(OH)D levels may not be suitable indicators for examining maturity and quality of oocytes in terms of morphology in BC women, and the poor morphological quality of oocytes in BC women may be due to other factors.

Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model.

BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease and Iran is one of the ten countries with has the highest estimated cases of leishmaniasis. This study aimed to determine the time trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incidence using the ARIMA model in Shahroud County, Semnan, Iran. METHODS: In this study, 725 patients with leishmaniasis were selected in the Health Centers of Shahroud during 2009-2020. Demographic characteristics including; history of traveling, history of leishmaniasis, co-morbidity of other family members, history of treatment, underlying disease, and diagnostic measures were collected using the patients' information listed in the Health Ministry portal. The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to fit the SARIMA model for CL incidence from 2009 to 2020. All statistical analyses were done by using Minitab software version 14. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 28.2 ± 21.3 years. The highest and lowest annual incidence of leishmaniasis were in 2018 and 2017, respectively. The average ten-year incidence was 132 per 100,000 population. The highest and lowest incidence of the disease were 592 and 195 for 100,000 population in the years 2011 and 2017, respectively. The best model was SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,1,2)4 (AIC: 324.3, BIC: 317.7 and RMSE: 0.167). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested that time series models would be useful tools for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence trends; therefore, the SARIMA model could be used in planning public health programs. It will predict the course of the disease in the coming years and run the solutions to reduce the cases of the disease.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis situation analysis in the Islamic Republic of Iran in preparation for an elimination plan.

Iran has invariably been under the growing public health threat of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a significant barrier to local development that hinders the prevention and control efforts toward eliminating the disease. So far, no comprehensive and in-depth epidemiological analysis of the CL situation has been carried out nationwide. This study aimed to employ advanced statistical models to analyze the data collected through the Center for Diseases Control and Prevention of Communicable Diseases during 1989-2020. However, we emphasized the current trends, 2013-2020, to study temporal and spatial CL patterns. In the country, the epidemiology of CL is incredibly intricate due to various factors. This fact indicates that the basic infrastructure, the preceding supports, and the implementation plan related to preventive and therapeutic measures need crucial support. The leishmaniasis situation analysis is consistent with desperate requirements for efficient information on the control program in the area. This review provides evidence of temporally regressive and spatially expanding incidence of CL with characteristic geographical patterns and disease hotspots, signifying an urgent need for comprehensive control strategies. This information could be a suitable model and practical experience in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, where over 80% of CL is reported.